It's gonna hit the black car and high end limousine industry harder and faster. Face it, most of their customers are either in poorer nabes or are corporate clients. Poorer nabe people will take the bus or walk. Corporate clients can cut back on car service, raise the time aftter which they will pay to get you home- say from 8 to 9, or renogiate rates. Yellow cab clients are much more varied, and with GPS now in place, we might even pick up corporate accounts looking to lower their transportation bills.
It's not like the 1930's, when there were 21,000 medallions, and almost half were not renewed because business was slow. Its more like there are 13,000 medallions out there, with another 30,000-40,000 black cars, and guess which service will suffer first and fastest. Yes, we will have tougher times ahead, but given the fact that many of those black cars survived by poaching our rides anyways, and given the fact that faced with a choice, a quality street hail will pick us over the black cars, I think we have less to wory about than either the high end or the low end competition.
But be careful out there. Bad times always encourage more violence, and ripping off cab drivers might be seen as an easy way to make money.