The recent medallion auction had people slobbering too much for any remaining medallions, and I think that the individual hybrid prices will stabalize around 475k based on current interest rates.
Why? If the buyer buys at 475, then chances are they will require 55k down payment, at least. Of that, ~23.5k will go to making TLC richer thanks to the 5% transfer tax, about 2000 will be in insurance prepaids, about 5k towards the car downpayment, and about 5k in other fees, like brokers, hack up, basically everything that you can be nickeled and dimed for you will be, leaving you, if you are lucky with an actual 25k applied to the purchase price. A commercial loan at say 6% on a 450k note with the standard 20 amortization, 3 year balloon will yield payments of about 3246. Then there is the car note, of probably about 926 for 3 years, based on 36mo, 7%, 30k balance to start. Then there is the liability insurance, workmans, tax stamp, renewal, GPS, about 1100/month. Adding these all up together gives 5271/mo, or 1216/wk. Maybe you get the rooftop, maybe not so that is not counted here.
The real question is basically how much will drivers go ABOVE the next best deal, which is to buy the car, and rent the medallion, if you can find one. This deal usually runs about 1125, so although I think that owning a medallion long term is worth it and you will payoff more than $100/wk in equity, my opinion is not important, and what matters are the other owners' opinions; it seems that most of them have said that they are willing to pay 100/wk more, but not much more than that, even given the hybrid's gas savings.
Raising the price to 500k, gives 3607 as the payment, with the other costs included raises the weekly price to 1299, right at the cusp of 1300, which might be the pyschological breaking point when compared to 1125 buy & lease program. But perhaps with the hybrids substantial gas savings and their growing widespread repairability, maybe people will just bite the bullet and pay 500k.
But all other things being equal, especially with the high price of gas, the low dollar, and NYC being not hurting as badly as the rest of the country, I don't see prices going much below 475k based on the numbers above, nor going much higher than 500k, again because of the numbers above.
So my advice? If you are going to be in the business long term, buy at between 475-500k. It won't go much lower than that unless conditions deterioate terribly or interest rates spike, and it shouldn't go much higher than that because the weekly nut becomes 1300+, and even with the gas savings, that is a psychological barrier that will be hard to cross. If you are in it to make a quick buck, that train has come and left the station. But long term, especially if you plan on driving for a while, then go ahead and bite the bullet, for you might as well be driving for yourself rather than someone else.
PS- Buying now vs. buying later because of a 3000 tax credit is not a good idea. First of all, this credit only applies to private cars, you get a 10k handicapped credit but not for hybrids, secondly the issue should only be based on the cash flow stream, with the tax credit as a bonus, rather than slobbering over a measly 3k, collected a year later, after essentially buying a 500k asset. Percentagewise, that is .6%, not an amount to truly influence a deciion.
Antolin